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Macro

Canada July core retail sales fall 0.7% MoM, missing -0.5% forecast

Canada’s core retail sales fell 0.7% month over month in July, below the -0.5% forecast, after a 0.5% gain in the prior month. The reading points to weaker underlying consumer demand in Canada at the start of the third quarter.

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AI take

The miss matters less than the composition: a core reading strips out the volatile categories that often flatter headline retail numbers, so a 0.7% decline is a cleaner signal of softening underlying demand. The swing from a prior gain to a contraction suggests the momentum heading into the third quarter was weaker than consensus assumed. For crypto and RWA markets, the relevance is indirect but real — softer Canadian demand feeds into rate-cut expectations, which typically shape risk appetite and dollar-sensitive flows. Whether this is a one-month distortion or the start of a broader consumer pullback is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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