Russia Economy Ministry Raises 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 0.6%

The upward revision to GDP rests on a higher Urals price assumption, yet the same forecast slashes investment growth to near-zero — a mix that suggests near-term output is being supported by external revenue rather than domestic capital formation. For commodity-linked and Russia-exposed assets, the Urals assumption is the more meaningful signal, since it feeds directly into fiscal and export earnings. Whether that price holds, and whether the investment downgrade proves transient, is the open question.