Week Ahead: Nonfarm Payrolls and PCE to Test Fed Rate Path

The data calendar matters less for any single print than for whether inflation and labor signals point the same direction. A soft core PCE alongside resilient payrolls would keep the rate path genuinely contested, while a weak payrolls reading would shift the debate toward how much easing is warranted. Cook's remarks carry added weight given her position on the committee. The real question is whether the AI-led equity rebound survives contact with this data.