Trump Declines to Say Whether US Will Strike Iran Before Midterms

The notable signal is the linkage of military posture to oil prices and, by extension, to an electorate heading into midterms. Trump's refusal to rule a strike in or out keeps escalation risk unpriced, while his claim that oil will fall sits awkwardly against that same risk. The 318% Iranian inflation figure is the economic-warfare scoreboard, and it suggests Tehran's pain is deepening regardless of any strike. Whether markets begin pricing geopolitical risk into energy, rather than taking the falling-oil line at face value, is the open question.