TREE NEWS reports: The Federal Reserve raised its federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, and the Nasdaq Composite set a record high on Sept. 22, rising 0.45% that day and 17.22% year to date. Data cited from Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello show the S&P 500 averaged a 14.9% gain in the 12 months after Fed hikes since 1982, versus 11.2% after cuts.
Fed Hikes to 3.75%-4.00%; Nasdaq Hits Record High Days Later
The striking part is the sequencing: an additional tightening move followed days later by an equity record, which undercuts the simple assumption that higher rates and risk assets must move in opposite directions. The historical averages cited point to the same ambiguity, since post-hike periods have outperformed post-cut periods over the sample. What this leaves open is whether the pattern reflects genuine growth resilience or a market reading the tightening cycle as near its end — a question the next data prints and Fed communication will have to settle.
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