Traders Cut ECB Bets, See Under 40% Odds of October Rate Hike

The repricing matters less for the odds themselves than for what it says about conviction: a sub-40% probability is a market that no longer treats further tightening as the base case. That feeds through to euro rate expectations and, by extension, the relative appeal of yield-bearing crypto and tokenized cash products, which have leaned on the higher-rate backdrop. The open question is whether this pullback reflects a durable reassessment of inflation and growth, or just a positioning unwind ahead of the meeting.