RBA’s Bullock: Further Rate Hikes May Not Be Needed If Inflation Falls

Bullock's conditional framing matters more than the headline: the RBA is keeping the tightening option alive without committing to it, which leaves the rate path hostage to incoming inflation data. The notable addition is the explicit link between a prolonged Middle East conflict and cost pass-through — that turns a geopolitical shock into a domestic inflation risk the RBA cannot control. For Australian borrowers and the currency, the open question is whether disinflation keeps arriving fast enough to validate the no-hike scenario, or whether energy-driven costs force the bank back to a tightening bias.