TREE NEWS reports: J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s September report on the 2026 US midterms argues that politics is not an independent driver of equity returns, with data through September 18 showing Senate Republicans at 53 seats and Democrats needing a net gain of four. Since 1937, S&P 500 midterm-year total returns have averaged 9.2% versus 13.3% in non-midterm years, but the report attributes weak years such as 2018 and 2022 to Fed tightening rather than elections. It flags August CPI at 3.4% and the Fed’s September hike to 3.75%–4.00%.
J.P. Morgan: 2026 Midterms Matter Less Than Rates and Earnings
AI take
The framing is the story here: by attributing weak midterm years to Fed tightening rather than election outcomes, the report pushes political risk to the periphery of the equity narrative and puts the rate path at the center. That matters for anyone positioning around the 2026 vote, since it implies the calendar carries less signal than the inflation prints. Whether that holds depends on whether CPI continues to dominate sentiment as the election approaches.
Generated by AI for reference only.
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