Barclays: 30-Year US Treasury Yield Could Reach 6%

This reframes the long end of the curve as a productivity story rather than a fiscal or inflation one, which is a meaningful shift in how the AI capex cycle gets priced: if the boom is real, higher long-term yields may be a feature, not a stress signal. That matters most for long-duration and rate-sensitive assets, including tokenized Treasuries and yield-bearing RWA products, where the risk-free benchmark is the core input. The open question is whether productivity data actually validates the thesis or whether yields are simply repricing term premium.