Kalshi in advanced talks to raise at $40B valuation

The step-up matters less than the cadence: two re-ratings in roughly four months implies capital is being priced against expected volume and regulatory positioning rather than current revenue. It also pulls prediction markets closer to the valuation band occupied by established exchange and brokerage businesses, which changes how peers and regulators may frame the sector. The undisclosed raise size is the tell — whether this is a modest top-up or a large primary round determines how much of the valuation is conviction versus mark-to-market momentum.