NAND Flash Makers Shift from Tungsten to Molybdenum: A $1B+ Equipment Opportunity
TREE NEWS reports: On August 23, semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis published a series of posts on X detailing a fundamental materials transition in 3D NAND flash manufacturing: the shift from tungsten (W) to molybdenum (Mo) for word lines. As NAND stacking layers exceed ~300, tungsten’s high resistance, fluorine-based chemical leakage, and poor fill capability in deep holes become critical bottlenecks. SemiAnalysis states bluntly: ‘Molybdenum is not an optimization; it is a requirement for NAND above 300 layers.’
This transition is already underway across the industry. Samsung began volume production of molybdenum word lines in 2024, Micron started mass production using Lam Research’s ALTUS Halo equipment in 2025, and SK Hynix plans to launch 375-layer NAND with molybdenum by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Kioxia/SanDisk (218 layers), Micron (276), Samsung (286), and SK Hynix (321) represent the current stacking landscape. SemiAnalysis estimates molybdenum will grow from a mid-single-digit percentage of NAND capacity in 2025 to about 30% by 2027.
Market Impact: Equipment Makers Stand to Gain
The transition creates a substantial new market for deposition equipment. SemiAnalysis projects NAND molybdenum deposition equipment sales will exceed $1 billion in 2027 alone, growing to roughly $2 billion annually by 2030 as DRAM and logic chips adopt the material. Lam Research is the first beneficiary, followed by Tokyo Electron (TEL). Applied Materials (AMAT), ASM International (ASMI), and China’s Naura are expected to benefit more from the subsequent waves in DRAM and logic.
For investors, this is a clear signal to watch semiconductor capital equipment names. Lam Research’s early lead in molybdenum-capable ALD/CVD tools could drive revenue growth and market share gains. TEL’s participation adds a second major player. The longer-term expansion into DRAM and logic widens the addressable market, potentially benefiting AMAT and ASMI as they develop competitive solutions.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Technology inflection: The tungsten-to-molybdenum shift is a structural change in NAND manufacturing, not a minor tweak. It is essential for scaling beyond 300 layers.
- Equipment revenue: Expect a new revenue stream for deposition equipment makers, with >$1B in 2027 and ~$2B by 2030. Lam Research is best positioned near-term.
- Industry adoption: Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix are all committed, providing a multi-year demand catalyst.
- Ripple effects: DRAM and logic adoption could extend the opportunity well beyond NAND, benefiting a broader set of equipment suppliers.
- Risks: Execution risks in ramping new processes, potential delays in DRAM/logic adoption, and competitive dynamics among equipment makers could affect the pace and distribution of gains.
In summary, the NAND industry’s move to molybdenum is a textbook example of a materials-driven innovation unlocking next-generation performance. For investors, it highlights the importance of following upstream technology shifts to identify winners in the semiconductor supply chain.
