Traders Trim Bets on ECB Rate Hikes, No Longer Fully Price Three

The retreat from fully pricing three hikes is a positioning story more than a policy signal: money markets are repricing the tail of the tightening cycle, not its direction. That matters for anyone holding duration or rate-sensitive crypto and RWA exposure, since the marginal move in front-end expectations tends to drive dollar and real-yield swings that spill into risk assets. Whether this is a temporary hedge adjustment or the start of a broader reassessment is the open question — watch whether the third hike stays only partially priced in the sessions ahead.