TREE NEWS update: Prediction market platform Kalshi filed with the CFTC on September 28 to move the termination date of its trading volume incentive program from October 1, 2027 to October 13, without giving a reason. The change follows roughly $5 billion in near-identical trades on its Ethereum perpetual contract market that drew CFTC scrutiny. The CFTC’s market oversight division warned in August that volume-linked incentives may encourage wash trading, and CFTC Chairman Selig may act on prediction market promotion this week.
Kalshi Moves Volume Incentive Program End Date Up to Oct 13
The quiet, unexplained pull-forward of an incentive program's sunset is itself the signal: Kalshi appears to be removing a feature regulators have already flagged as a wash-trading risk, rather than waiting for an enforcement action. That matters most for venues whose volumes lean on rewards rather than genuine order flow, since the CFTC's August warning now has a concrete follow-through. Whether other platforms pre-emptively unwind similar programs, and whether the chairman's expected action lands this week, is the open question.
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