Brazil election: 88.2% counted, Bolsonaro 48.2%, Lula 43.8%

The partial count matters less for who is ahead than for the runoff threshold: Bolsonaro sits below 50%, so the presidential race remains unresolved rather than decided. That keeps political uncertainty alive into a second round, which is the backdrop markets price for Brazilian assets — the real, local rates and equities. The open question is whether the remaining, uncounted share shifts either candidate across that threshold or confirms a runoff, and how quickly the result is conceded.