CBO’s Swagel: Structural Fiscal Deficit at 6% of GDP

A structural deficit of that size, as characterized by the CBO, implies a persistent gap rather than a cyclical one, which matters for how much fiscal space exists if conditions deteriorate. The absence of any timeframe or budget detail leaves the durability of the measure unclear. For markets, the relevant question is whether this framing begins to shape debate over borrowing costs and the supply of government debt, which in turn feeds into the macro backdrop that tokenized real-world assets and crypto more broadly trade against. Whether the CBO elaborates on the drivers is the open question.