TREE NEWS reports: In late European trading on Thursday, October 8, ICE UK natural gas futures fell 0.95% and the TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas contract slipped 0.45%. ICE EU carbon allowance futures moved the other way, gaining 1.78%.
UK and Dutch Gas Futures Edge Lower; EU Carbon Permits Rise 1.78%
The divergence is the story: gas benchmarks easing while EU allowances firm suggests the two are not trading on a single energy-complex signal, with carbon possibly responding to compliance or policy expectations rather than fuel-switching economics. For utilities and industrials that hedge both, the spread between input costs and permit costs is what shapes marginal generation decisions. Whether the carbon gain holds against softer gas — or is reversed by it — is the open question.
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