USDA Raises US Cotton Ending Stocks Forecast to 3.8M Bales, Above Estimates

The revision matters less for its size than for its direction: USDA moved ending stocks up while the analyst consensus sat below even the prior figure, meaning the market was positioned for a tighter balance sheet than the report delivered. That gap between expectation and print is what typically drives the immediate repricing in cotton futures, and it ripples into textile input costs and the broader agricultural commodity complex. Whether the higher carry carries through to subsequent reports, or proves a one-off adjustment, is the open question worth tracking.