ECB’s Kazaks: 2.5% Is Upper Bound of Neutral Rate Range

The framing matters more than the level: placing 2.5% at the top of the neutral range implies current policy is already near or above a setting that neither stimulates nor restrains activity, which narrows the case for further tightening and shifts the debate toward how long rates stay there. For euro-area rates and the euro, the signal is about the reaction function rather than any single meeting. The open question is whether other Governing Council members converge on that same framing or push the neutral range higher, since that split will drive the next repricing.