Fed October Rate-Hold Odds Rise to 84%, 25bp Hike Cut to 17%

The repricing matters less for the level of the odds than for the direction of travel: the market is treating a pause as the base case, and the modest event volume suggests this is a positioning shift rather than a conviction trade. For crypto and RWA desks, the read-through is a softer near-term discount-rate path, which tends to loosen the liquidity conditions that tokenized-yield and credit products are priced against. The open question is whether this stays a pause narrative or hardens into a cut narrative — that distinction, not the October decision itself, is what will move risk appetite.