IMF Sees Global Inflation Rising to 4.7% in 2026, Easing to 4.1% in 2027

The IMF's inflation path is really an oil-supply forecast in disguise: its baseline depends on Hormuz shipping resuming in March 2027 and normalising by October, so the projected easing is contingent, not assured. The upward revision to average crude prices is the operative detail, since it feeds directly into the wider-war scenario, where growth is trimmed by 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points. For crypto and RWA markets, the transmission runs through the same rate expectations that have driven correlation with macro risk. Whether the Hormuz reopening timeline holds is the open question.