IEA: Europe, Asia Refiners May Cut Runs This Quarter as Freight Costs Squeeze Margins

The IEA's warning matters less as a demand forecast than as a signal that the strain sits in logistics rather than in end-user consumption. Freight costs are a pass-through input that refiners can only absorb for so long before run cuts become the cheaper option, which means crude demand from these two regions is now partly a function of shipping economics. The open question is whether the margin squeeze proves temporary or forces a more durable shift in where refining capacity is utilised.