IEA: Russia-US Diesel Deal Unlikely to Shift Market Balance

The IEA's read is that a political headline doesn't automatically become barrels: the binding constraint is refining capacity, not diplomacy, with Ukrainian drone strikes doing more to shape export flows than any bilateral deal. That matters for diesel-dependent sectors and for anyone tracking whether Russian supply can be relied on as a swing factor. The open question is whether refinery runs stabilize or keep eroding, and whether the agreement produces any observable change in export volumes at all.