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Macro

US September Core CPI Hits 2.6% Year-on-Year, Highest Since June

US unadjusted core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in September, the highest since June and above the 2.5% market expectation. On a seasonally adjusted basis, core CPI increased 0.3% month-on-month, also exceeding the 0.2% forecast.

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AI take

The upside surprise in core inflation matters because it is the stickier component that shapes rate expectations, and a beat on both the annual and monthly readings complicates the disinflation narrative. This feeds directly into how risk assets, including crypto, price the path of policy, since a hotter core print tends to firm rate expectations and pressure liquidity-sensitive trades. Whether this is a one-month bump tied to September's seasonal quirks or the start of a firmer trend is the open question, and the next core reading will be the tell.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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