Brazil runoff poll: Bolsonaro and Lula tied at 50% each

The shift from a two-point Bolsonaro lead to a dead heat in the same polling series is the signal worth noting, since it suggests the runoff is genuinely too close to call on current data. For markets, the practical implication is that Brazilian asset pricing may now hinge more on turnout and late-campaign dynamics than on any settled expectation. Whether this tie holds in subsequent polls, or proves to be noise within margins of error, is the open question.