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Crypto Macro

Hayes: OpenAI, Anthropic Have No Value; Bigger AI Bubble Means Higher Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes said on October 16 on the Convergence program that OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX are unprofitable, with AI model companies relying on debt and equity financing and implicit U.S. government support. The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.5% and chip stocks dropped for an eighth straight session, the longest losing streak since 2008. With bitcoin near $81,400 on October 17, Hayes argued the bigger the AI bubble, the larger the eventual bailout and the higher bitcoin goes.

Original source

AI take

Hayes's framing is a liquidity argument rather than a valuation one: the claim is not that bitcoin is cheap but that AI capex financed by debt and equity, plus implicit state backing, keeps the system dependent on easy money — and that a bailout would be the payoff. The chip-sector losing streak and the Nasdaq drawdown suggest the market is already testing that thesis. What matters is whether credit markets start pricing AI-related risk differently, and whether bitcoin keeps trading as a hedge against that stress or simply as a high-beta risk asset.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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