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Crypto Macro

Analyst Darkfost: 20% US Stock Correction Unlikely to Crash Bitcoin to $10K

Crypto analyst Darkfost pushed back on October 18 against community claims that a 20% US stock market correction would send Bitcoin tumbling to $10,000. Such a drop would mean an roughly 87% decline from current levels and about a 92% drawdown from its all-time high, Darkfost noted. Bitcoin has exceeded a 92% drawdown only once, in 2011, while maximum drawdowns in 2015, 2019, 2022 and 2026 were 82.5%, 82.6%, 74.4% and 54.2% respectively.

Original source

AI take

The pushback matters less as a forecast than as a reminder of how extreme the $10K scenario is relative to Bitcoin's own drawdown history. Darkfost's comparison shifts the debate from equity correlation to the depth of past crypto bear markets, where the worst episodes clustered in the 50–80% range rather than near-total collapse. What remains open is whether Bitcoin's drawdown pattern still holds if equity stress deepens, and whether the 2011 outlier stays just that.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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