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Crypto Macro

Analysts Split on Bitcoin Year-End Outlook: $100K vs. $85K-$95K Range

Bitwise research director Ryan Rasmussen said bitcoin could break above $100,000 by the end of 2026, citing institutional ETF buying, continued corporate purchases, inflation and government debt concerns, and a clearer regulatory environment. LO:TECH research director Adam Morgan McCarthy expects bitcoin to trade between $85,000 and $95,000 through year-end, with inflation pressure and Federal Reserve policy remaining headwinds. McCarthy said a return above $100,000 may require markets to lower expectations for a December Fed rate hike.

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AI take

The split itself is the story: two research directors looking at the same institutional-ETF and macro backdrop reach opposite conclusions, which suggests conviction on bitcoin's year-end path is weaker than the bullish headlines imply. The disagreement hinges less on adoption and more on how much Fed policy and inflation expectations get priced in, making macro the swing factor rather than crypto-native flows. Whether ETF and corporate buying can offset rate headwinds is the open question, and the December Fed meeting is the near-term marker both camps implicitly depend on.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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