BOJ Expected to Hold Rates in October, Signal Possible December Hike

The signal matters more than the hold here: a December hike flagged in advance suggests the BOJ wants to prepare markets rather than surprise them, and the possible upward revision to the fiscal 2027 inflation forecast reinforces that the tightening bias is genuine. This affects yen-sensitive carry trades and any risk asset that has leaned on cheap Japanese funding, crypto included, since a higher-yen path can unwind leveraged positions. The open question is whether the December signal hardens into action, and how much of the inflation revision reflects durable price pressure versus temporary factors.