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CF40 Report Urges Nominal GDP Growth as Key Policy Reference

The CF40 annual research report, titled “China’s New Economic Paradigm: Drivers, Trends and Policy Implications,” was released at the 2026 Bund Summit. It recommends using nominal GDP growth as an important short-term reference for macro policy, with the immediate priority being to push for reflation and move the economy away from low nominal growth. Over the medium and long term, the report calls for structural reforms to build a new growth mechanism suited to the post-property era.

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AI take

The significance lies in the framing: a prominent Chinese research body arguing that nominal rather than real growth should anchor short-term macro policy is a tacit acknowledgment that subdued inflation, not just output, has become the binding constraint. This speaks to policymakers weighing reflation tools and to anyone exposed to China's nominal growth trajectory. The report's two-track logic — reflation now, structural reform later — leaves open whether the near-term push and the post-property growth rebuild can be sequenced without one crowding out the other.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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