Oil jumps as Iran-US talks continue; deal ‘imminent’ reports denied

The speed of the move matters more than its size: a denial of a headline, not a change in the underlying dispute, was enough to reprice crude within minutes. That tells you how much of the recent risk premium rests on expectations of a deal rather than on confirmed progress, leaving oil exposed to every contradictory brief from the talks. The read-across for crypto and other risk assets is a reminder that Middle East headlines are now a live input into broader risk appetite, not a background story. Whether the talks produce anything verifiable, and how violently crude reacts to each leak in the meantime, is the open question.