TREE NEWS reports: JPMorgan Asset Management has for the first time included bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions, forecasting a 10% annualized return over the next decade that could beat stocks, bonds and gold. The firm assumes 55% annualized volatility for bitcoin, more than three times that of U.S. large-cap stocks, and said it has not yet added bitcoin to its main portfolio models because its correlation with other assets is unstable.
JPMorgan Asset Management Adds Bitcoin to Long-Term Assumptions, Sees 10% Annual Return
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AI take
The significance lies less in the return forecast than in the institutional framing: bitcoin is now being modeled alongside stocks, bonds and gold, even while JPMorgan's own portfolio models exclude it. The 55% volatility assumption and the unstable correlation caveat show the firm treating bitcoin as a distinct, hard-to-size risk rather than a diversifier. The open question is whether correlation stabilizes enough for bitcoin to move from assumption sheet to actual allocation.
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