Over 80% of BOJ watchers expect next rate hike in December

The near-unanimous shift toward December matters less as a forecast than as a positioning signal: when consensus moves this fast, the surprise risk flips to the other side of the calendar. For crypto and RWA markets, the transmission channel is yen carry and global liquidity — a BOJ hike tightens the funding leg that has supported risk assets, so the December meeting is now a macro event, not a domestic one. The open question is whether the October meeting stays a pure hold and whether the yen and JGB curve start pricing December before the BOJ does.