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Macro

Bank of Korea Sees Exports, Investment Driving Stronger Growth

The Bank of Korea expects exports and investment to sustain high growth, with this year’s and next year’s economic growth rates significantly above its August forecasts of 3.3% and 2.9%. Uncertainties remain around the chip supply chain and spillover to domestic demand, along with Middle East risks. CPI and core inflation this year are seen broadly in line with August projections of 2.7% and 2.5%, while next year’s readings are expected to exceed prior forecasts of 2.3% and 2.5%.

Original source

AI take

The upgrade is a trade-led story, with exports and investment doing the lifting while inflation stays close to prior projections this year — the more telling signal sits in next year's upward-revised CPI and core figures, which suggests the Bank of Korea sees price pressure firming even as growth strengthens. That combination matters for rate expectations and for won-sensitive assets. The open questions are whether chip supply-chain stress and Middle East risks undercut the export impulse, and whether the projected spillover into domestic demand actually materializes.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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