Morgan Stanley: Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels

The headline recovery in crude masks a two-speed market: upstream flows have largely normalized, including Hormuz bypass routes, but refined product shipments remain deeply impaired at best half of normal. That gap matters because it implies refinery or shipping constraints rather than crude supply are now the binding problem, and it affects product consumers and refiners more than crude buyers. The Saudi Red Sea routing north into the Mediterranean is the logistical workaround worth watching, along with whether product flows close the gap to crude.