IMF forecasts 1.3% economic contraction in Middle East this year

The IMF's projection puts a hard number on a conflict that markets have mostly traded through energy headlines; the surprise is breadth, with nearly every GCC economy contracting rather than just the most exposed. The damage runs through shipping, trade and tourism as much as oil output, which matters for the region's diversification story. Whether Oman's outlier status reflects genuine insulation or timing is the open question, and how the IMF's next outlook revises these figures as the conflict evolves is worth watching.