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Macro US Stocks

BofA’s Hartnett Keeps Risk-Off Stance Until Mid-November, Sees Stocks, Yields and Dollar Falling

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said Friday he is tactically maintaining a risk-off stance until mid-November, expecting a trade of falling yields, falling stocks and a falling dollar. Hartnett wrote in a note to clients that unease over the AI trade and the US midterm elections is weighing on equities. He said the market still needs to fully price in the possibility that Democrats win control of both the House and Senate, which would end the current low-tax, low-regulation policy environment and hurt corporate earnings growth.

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AI take

Hartnett's call is notable less for its directional bet than for what it says about how macro strategists are framing AI equities: not as a standalone growth story but as a sentiment trade vulnerable to political risk. The midterm angle is the sharper point — his argument is that markets have not fully priced a Democratic sweep and the policy shift it would imply for taxes and regulation, which ties equity risk to an election outcome rather than earnings. Whether that repricing actually shows up before mid-November, and whether the AI unease he cites proves durable, are the open questions worth tracking.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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