Wells Fargo: Go long Treasuries, short dollar before midterms

Wells Fargo's framing is notable because it treats the two most probable midterm outcomes as variants of the same trade: a modest negative fiscal shock that supports duration and weighs on the dollar. The more specific call — that a Democratic sweep could pressure AI-themed trades — links political outcomes to a sector that has been a dominant market driver, which is where the analytical risk sits. Whether positioning ahead of an election on scenario logic holds up once results are known is the open question, particularly if the fiscal shock proves smaller than assumed.