Moody’s forecasts France’s 2027 deficit at 5.2% of GDP, above EU’s 3% limit

The signal here is less the 2027 number itself than the fact that a major rating agency is publicly mapping a persistent breach of the EU's fiscal ceiling years out, which frames France's budget trajectory as a structural problem rather than a one-off slippage. This matters most for holders of French sovereign debt and for EU fiscal credibility, since a large core economy missing the 3% threshold weakens the framework's enforcement logic. The open question is whether Moody's projection is treated as a baseline that French budgeting adjusts toward, or as an early marker of rating pressure and wider euro-area spread sensitivity.