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Macro

Emerging Market Stocks Fall for Fourth Straight Week as Oil Surges

Emerging-market stocks fell for a fourth consecutive week on Friday as oil prices jumped to $117 a barrel, heightening fears of interest-rate hikes. Most developing-nation currencies weakened against the dollar, with South Africa’s rand, Chile’s peso and Poland’s zloty the worst performers. Brazil’s real bucked the trend, gaining 1.3% against the dollar and breaking through the 5-per-dollar level to become the best-performing emerging-market currency.

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AI take

The story here is divergence within emerging markets rather than the headline weakness. Oil at $117 a barrel is feeding rate-hike fears and pressuring most developing-nation currencies, but the real's gain through the 5-per-dollar mark shows commodity exposure and domestic policy credibility can still separate winners from losers in the same risk-off tape. For EM asset allocators, the relevant question is whether this split widens — particularly whether the rand, peso and zloty keep absorbing the oil shock while Brazil stays insulated. Watch whether the rate-hike fears tied to energy prices persist, since that is what is driving the broad currency softness.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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