Tiger Research: Prediction Markets Rival Polls as Macro Data Source

The notable shift here is institutional legitimization: prediction markets are being cited not by crypto outlets but by mainstream financial media and market infrastructure like ICE and Tradeweb, which changes who treats these prices as signal rather than novelty. The Fed working paper comparison against fed funds futures is the sharper claim, since it puts prediction markets in direct competition with an established benchmark. The open question is whether calibration holds across thinner, less liquid contracts and venues beyond the ones studied.