Chicago Fed National Activity Index rises to 0.07 in September

A move above zero is the meaningful part here: the index had been sitting just below the trend line, so September marks a shift from slightly sub-par activity to slightly above it. That matters less as a growth story than as a data point against the easing case, since a firmer activity print complicates the narrative of a clearly cooling economy. The open question is whether this is a one-month bounce or the start of a sustained run above trend, and whether the underlying components are broad-based or concentrated in a few categories.