Lula Wins Brazil Runoff After Prediction Markets Favored Bolsonaro

The episode matters less for who won than for what it says about prediction markets as a signal: pricing that diverges sharply from an outcome raises questions about liquidity, participation and how much weight these platforms deserve in political coverage. It affects traders who treated the odds as a forecast and the platforms whose credibility rests on calibration. Whether this is treated as a one-off miss or a broader recalibration of how political contracts are read is the open question.