Bernstein cuts Coinbase target, raises Circle on prediction markets, derivatives

Bernstein is drawing a line between two business models rather than making a broad call on the sector: prediction markets and derivatives are framed as revenue drivers that favor Circle's outlook while pressuring Coinbase's. That distinction matters because it suggests analysts are beginning to differentiate crypto infrastructure names by product mix, not by beta to the same cycle. The open question is whether prediction markets and derivatives become durable earnings contributors or remain marginal line items, and whether Coinbase's own product buildout changes the trajectory Bernstein is now pricing.