Anthropic Files S-1 With SEC; Kalshi Traders Put 95% Odds on 2026 IPO

The gap between Kalshi's 95% and Polymarket's 69% is the real story here: traders broadly agree a filing exists, but disagree sharply on whether it converts into an effective registration and a listed, trading stock on a specific timeline. That spread matters because a confidential or early S-1 is a disclosure milestone, not a listing, and the two markets are effectively pricing different events. For crypto and RWA watchers, a large AI issuer entering public markets would be a notable test of how much institutional capital is still earmarked for private AI exposure versus liquid equity. Whether the S-1 progresses toward effectiveness is the open question.