RBA Deputy Governor Hauser Sees No Australian Recession

The signal value here is in the framing rather than the substance: a senior RBA official publicly ruling out recession is a statement about the central bank's own confidence in the growth backdrop, which sits awkwardly with the restrictive policy stance markets have been pricing. For Australian borrowers, lenders and anyone with rate-sensitive exposure, the takeaway is that the RBA is not positioning for a sharp downturn — which shapes expectations around the policy path more than any single data point. Whether that confidence holds as activity data arrive is the open question.