RBNZ’s Breman: Neutral Rate Estimates Broad, Uncertainty Persists

Breman's remarks underscore a structural limit on forward guidance: when the neutral rate is acknowledged as broadly uncertain, the RBNZ's ability to signal how tight policy actually is weakens, and markets are left to infer restrictiveness from data rather than from the central bank. The admission that officials did not discuss what level of the cash rate would be restrictive reinforces that gap. For rate-sensitive sectors, including crypto and other risk assets that trade off New Zealand rate expectations, the practical effect is a wider band of plausible policy paths. Whether the RBNZ narrows that uncertainty, or leans further on data dependence, is the open question.