World Bank forecasts commodity prices to surge 23% in 2026

The signal here is less the headline number than the composition: this is a supply-and-geopolitics shock, not a demand boom, with shipping disruption, grain logistics and safe-haven gold demand doing the work. That mix matters for commodity-linked RWA and tokenized real-asset structures, since the underlying cash flows shift with freight and food input costs rather than broad growth. The World Bank's own reversal forecast for the following year, plus the El Niño food risk, is the tension worth watching — whether the inflation pass-through proves as persistent as the shock itself is the open question.