Treasury Yields Rise Ahead of Fed Decision; 10-Year at 5.0196%

The move is less about the size of the yield bump than about where it lands: a 10-year above 5% ahead of the Fed statement signals that the long end is setting its own terms rather than simply tracking policy expectations. The split between rising front-end yields and a softer dollar is the more telling pairing, since it suggests the rate move is drawing capital rather than repelling it. Whether that divergence persists through the statement, and whether equities can keep shrugging off higher discount rates, is the open question.