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Macro

German two-year yield falls 5.6 bps on ECB hold; 10-year down 1.6 bps

Germany’s two-year bond yield fell 5.6 basis points to 3.075% on Thursday as the European Central Bank held rates steady, deepening its decline after the 21:15 announcement and hitting a session low at 23:34. The 10-year yield dropped 1.6 bps to 3.355%, touching a session low during ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, while the 30-year rose 1.6 bps to 3.701%. The 2/10-year spread widened 4.026 bps to +27.785 bps.

Original source

AI take

The front-end outperformance is the tell: a hold that still pulls the two-year this hard suggests the market read the decision and Lagarde's press conference as leaning more dovish than the status quo, even without a cut. The curve steepening, with the 30-year moving the other way, points to investors pricing easier policy ahead rather than a broad rally in duration. For anyone tracking euro rates and the bund curve as a funding benchmark, the question is whether this front-end bid persists or fades once the press-conference reaction is digested.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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