ECB’s Simkus: Holding rates does not rule out future hikes

Simkus is pushing back on the assumption that a hold is a ceiling, which matters because it keeps optionality open rather than signaling a peak. The added emphasis on energy spillover effects is the more telling part: it frames inflation risk as potentially re-accelerating from an external source, which is what would justify revisiting hikes. For rate-sensitive markets, the takeaway is that the hold should be read as conditional, not terminal. Whether other Governing Council members echo this framing, and whether energy pass-through shows up in the data, is the open question.